MLB: Thoughts on the 2022 MLB Draft

I promised myself I’d write more here. So in that spirit, here are some (actually a lot of) thoughts on the upcoming MLB draft, which starts this Sunday night.

Because the Red Sox picked 4th overall in 2021, which was quite literally the highest they’d picked in several generations, I took a real interest in the proceedings. I tried to consume as much as I could leading up to the 1st round, relying on the outstanding work of so many excellent draft experts. These include Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo at MLB Pipeline, Keith Law at the Athletic, Kiley McDaniel at ESPN, Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs, Carlos Collazo and team at Baseball America, and Joe Doyle and team at ProspectsLive.

The Red Sox will pick 20 spots later this year, but my level of engagement has stayed relatively the same. It’s been fun to follow all the mock drafts and rankings, as opinions and machinations shift across the board. There’s a lot of intrigue as we head into the weekend, with major flux at the top and real possibilities for chaos (or whatever that really means, as I’ll explain) as the action unfolds.

Now, here are some words I wrote. First I’ll cover the intrigue of the first overall pick, then offer some baseless speculation on who the Red Sox might pick this year, and then share some thoughts on the draft overall. Then, the blog will be over and you can go read something else. Sound good?

***

While the consensus about who the Baltimore Orioles will actually take 1st overall Sunday has remained a mystery, the industry consensus about who should go 1st has been consistent for months: the best player available is Druw Jones, a high school outfielder from Georgia. Yes, that is the son of Andruw Jones. Druw is only slightly younger now than Andruw was when Andruw took the world by storm hitting .400 with 2 HRs in the 1996 World Series.

Quick aside: If you’re around my age, it’s impossible for this particular draft to not make you feel extremely old. There are most likely going to be four sons of ex-MLBers taken in the first round. Beyond Jones, Matt Holliday’s son Jackson (a HS shortstop from Oklahoma) and Lou Collier’s son Cam (a junior college 3B from Florida) seem locks to go in the top 10, and Carl Crawford’s son Justin (a HS OF from Nevada) probably goes in the top 20. These are all sons of guys I remember as rookies. I’m old.

Anyway, earlier in the spring, there was talk of Jones being a generational prospect, maybe not quite as generational as Bryce Harper was, but clearly the cream of the crop and a no-doubt top prospect. That talk has cooled. Jones does everything extremely well, profiles like his dad as a multi-Gold Glove-winner in CF, has outstanding power and speed, etc. Here he is shutting down a bunch of “overrated” chants by dropping an absolute tank in a game earlier this year, and then shushing the opposing dugout before crossing the plate.

Yet, it’s been unclear on what the Orioles and their GM Mike Elias will do with their pick. The Orioles have picked high under Elias basically his entire tenure, and they’ve taken college hitters the last three years, but all under different circumstances. In 2019, they took Adley Rutschman 1st overall. He was the consensus best player available. In 2020, they went way off the board for a “haircut” (this means they selected someone higher than their consensus ranking in order to sign them for a bonus under the recommended slot dollar amount, and thus save on the overall bonus pool to spend on players selected later) with Heston Kjerstad 2nd overall. Last year, they did the haircut thing again when they took Colton Cowser 5th overall, although I think Cowser probably wouldn’t have lasted past the 10th pick based on post-draft analysis.

So how does all that inform what Elias and Co. might do this time? The best college hitter available this year is Brooks Lee, a shortstop from Cal Poly. By industry consensus, he’s the 5th best overall prospect behind Jones, Holliday, Georgia HS IF Termarr Johnson and Florida HS OF Elijah Green. Klaw’s most recent mock draft has them going for the haircut once again with Lee. There have been other mocks saying they’ll take Jones, some with Holliday, and at least one not too long ago with Johnson as their pick.

But if I had to guess, I think they either go with Jones or Lee. They were also the top two choices in an MLB Pipeline straw poll of industry insiders posted late Thursday.

Now, I’m just a schmuck with an Internet connection, but based on all I’ve consumed, I think the Orioles will be making a big mistake by passing on Jones. And the fans in Baltimore would have a right to be angry if they select Lee instead. 

Jones does everything at a high level and has the highest probability in the draft of being a superstar. I’d argue the player with the second-highest probability for superstardom is Johnson based on his elite hit tool. Lee, though? He’s probably going to end up at 3B long-term, and his offensive profile while strong doesn’t scream “superstar” to me.

If I’m an O’s fan, I’d definitely want them to take Jones, and even if they pick Johnson, or Holliday for that matter, they’re at least taking a chance on the possibility of their top pick turning into someone truly special. I just don’t believe Lee is going to be special.

None of us know for sure what will happen with anyone taken this year, until many seasons from now. In 2012, the Astros took a haircut guy 1st overall when Byron Buxton was the consensus top talent. That haircut guy ended up being Carlos Correa. If Lee goes 1st and ends up being part of the Orioles’ return to greatness, then Elias will be right and I’ll be wrong.

But as things stand right now, the best player is Jones, and there’s a real possibility the O’s will willingly pass on him to save money for other picks.

Another note on this: if the Orioles do pass on Jones, Mike Hazen and the D’Backs will reportedly happily take him at 2nd overall. Every mock I’ve seen with someone other than Jones going 1st then has Jones getting picked by the D’Backs immediately after. A year after Jordan Lawlar (who as of Thursday was slashing .329/.429/.551 between three different MiLB levels in 2022) fell to them at 6th, it seems unfair they’d possibly get that level of talent falling to them two years in a row.

***

On Sunday night, the Red Sox will make three picks: their 1st round selection at 24th overall, a 2nd-round selection they received as compensation for failing to sign their 2021 2nd round pick, Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, which slots in at 41st overall, and another compensatory 2nd-round pick at 79th overall for losing Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers in free agency. The Sox forfeited their own 2nd round pick this year, which would have been 61st overall, when they signed Trevor Story.

It’s somewhat helpful to think about the Sox picks in context of the size of their bonus pool. Barring a last-minute trade to acquire a Competitive Balance Round pick, the Sox will have a bonus pool at a shade over $8M. They have the 18th-largest pool of the 30 teams. The recommended bonus slot value for the 24th, 41st and 79th picks are $2.97M, $1.9M, and $820K, respectively.

Now, who do we think the Red Sox will select with the 24th pick, and how will that impact the subsequent picks they make? Truthfully, we have no idea what they’re going to do. Since Chaim Bloom took over baseball operations, the Red Sox run a very tight ship on all matters, and we pretty much never learn about moves they make until right before they happen. This has caused a great deal of annoyance and often downright indignation among local baseball scribes (and it’s probably the biggest reason why Dan Shaughnessy seems to hate Bloom with the fire of a billion curly-haired suns) but it’s how they do business.

What they’ve done in the previous two drafts is at least somewhat but not terribly instructive on what to expect Sunday. In 2020, Bloom and amateur scouting director Paul Toboni went way off the board to select Nick Yorke, a HS shortstop, in the 1st round at 17th overall. The pick was slammed at the time, but by the end of 2021 Yorke was on all the relevant Top 100 prospects lists and remained there despite an inconsistent and injury-riddled 2022 season for High-A Greenville so far. 

Last year, the Sox really did not have a choice at 4th overall when the consensus top player in the draft, Marcelo Mayer, another HS shortstop, fell squarely in their lap. Mayer has also dealt with some injuries but has been terrific for Low-A Salem when healthy, and he’s crept into the Top 10 overall prospects in baseball.

Based on the strengths and weaknesses of this year’s draft class, I think it’s unlikely the Sox will wind up with another HS MI at 24. They’ve been linked to Jett Williams, a Texas HS shortstop with a great hit tool whose build reminds me a lot of Dustin Pedroia, but odds are he’s off the board at 24. Same with Cole Young from Pennsylvania.

There’ve been a ton of mock drafts this spring and there was a very consistent theme in the projected picks at 24 (at least until recently, which I’ll get to shortly): college outfielders. There is a solid group of them this year, and most of them have been mocked to teams in the 20-30 range. 

Going for a college OF, and one who could potentially move through the system quickly, makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox. Looking at the current SoxProspects.com list of their top 60 prospects in the system, only four of their top 30 are OFs. Two are in the top 10, but one of them, Miguel Bleis, is just 18, and the other, Ceddanne Rafaela, has rocketed up national prospects lists but projects more as a super-utility guy than an everyday OF. 

Outfield is also a position of some future flux at the MLB level with Kike Hernandez and Jackie Bradley Jr. about to be free agents after this season. They also clearly tried to address this last year’s with the failed Fabian pick. (Side note: it seems very unlikely this year that Fabian will get a bonus of $3M that he was allegedly promised by his agent last year, and he also may not get more than what was believed to be a $2.1M offer from the Red Sox that he rejected. It was clear then and it’s clear now that Fabian got terrible advice. I feel for the kid, but he should have taken the money.)

The top college OFs on the board are Jacob Berry from LSU and Gavin Cross from Virginia Tech, but like Williams, they probably won’t be there at 24. The next tier of college OFs is much more likely to be available at 24, and I’ve seen many of these guys mocked to the Red Sox over the last few months:

• Dylan Beavers (Cal)
• Jordan Beck (Tennessee)
• Chase DeLauter (James Madison)
• Drew Gilbert (Tennessee)
• Brock Jones (Stanford)
• Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt)
• Jacob Melton (Oregon State)
• Sterlin Thompson (Florida)

Of those eight college OFs, I like Gilbert the best. He played CF and was the beating heart for possibly the best college baseball team of all-time this past season, and while the Vols’ bravado rubbed many the wrong way and many were pleased to see them get bounced before the College World Series, I was disappointed Gilbert’s season ended early.

The dude is a pest, kind of a baseball version of Brad Marchand. I’ve seen his game compared to Brett Gardner and Adam Eaton, and while that may not sound incredible, you’re ecstatic if your 1st round pick turns into someone with that type of career. Gilbert has shown more power potential than those guys. He plays excellent defense, has terrific speed, can spray the ball to all fields, and shows an advanced approach at the plate. In Boston, Gilbert would be immediately beloved. Check this out:

Now, if I had to bet, I think Gilbert gets taken before 24. DeLauter, who is very talented but was hurt this year and played at a small school, is probably off the board too. Beck, Gilbert’s teammate, is someone I like a lot as well. He profiles as more of a Hunter Renfroe-type, an excellent defender who can also play CF and despite some holes in his swing should have good power. He also plays with swagger like Gilbert. 

Spencer Jones’ build has been compared to that of Aaron Judge and Vanderbilt guys often have success in MLB. When Peter Gammons first saw Dylan Beavers on the Cape last year, Gammons said he was reminded of a young Paul O’Neill. Brock Jones played football at Stanford and is a tremendous athlete but is still fairly raw when it comes to baseball. Sterlin Thompson can play 2B in addition to OF and everyone loves versatility. Jacob Melton is fast but his hitting may need some work. They’d all help fill the vacuum of quality OF prospects in the system.

Having said all of this, I can’t help but feel like I’m screaming into the void. It’s possible I’ve wasted a lot of words here and a lot of brain power over the last few months on this crop of college OFs with no guarantee whatsoever the Red Sox are even thinking about any of these guys. And, as I mentioned before, the vibe about 24 seems to be changing.

On Monday, Klaw’s mock draft contained this: he had the Sox picking RHP Kumar Rocker, the former Vanderbilt star who was selected 10th last year by the Mets but ended up not signing after they found something they didn’t like in his post-draft physical. 

He later had shoulder surgery, and made a couple impressive outings in indy ball last month. Last year, Klaw floated several times that the Sox were interested in taking Rocker with the 4th overall pick, adding on Monday the Sox had a huge presence at his indy ball starts. This came after Callis noted Rocker as “an intriguing possibility” for the Red Sox at 24 in an MLB Pipeline mock last week (he had Williams going to the Sox at 24, and his colleague Mayo had the same result in his own mock this week).

Then on Tuesday, when discussing the draft with reporters, Toboni said the following as part of a bigger quote when asked about Rocker: “We liked him a lot as a high schooler, we liked him last year, and we like him a good amount this year.” So much for running a tight ship! In all seriousness, it’s possible Rocker isn’t there at 24. He looked great in his starts last month, and if all his pitches are really working as well as they were during his Vanderbilt career, I don’t see how all the teams picking in the Top 20 would say no to that.

But, if he is available at 24, it would be an opportunity to add a polished hurler who has pitched in huge games, and could very possibly help the big league club as a reliever as soon as this year. Plus, because he didn’t sign last year and doesn’t have much leverage after leaving school, he wouldn’t require a signing bonus above the $2.97M slot and could even sign for less, leaving more money for potentially tougher-to-sign players at 41 or 79. They could also take Rocker or another pitcher at 24 and look to see if any of the aforementioned college OFs fall to 41 and get better value there.

Some other hitters I’ve seen recently linked to the Sox 1st pick include: Campbell SS Zach Neto, Texas Tech 2B Jace Jung, Arizona C Daniel Susac and Oklahoma SS Peyton Graham. The only other pitcher besides Rocker that I’ve read linked to the Sox at 24 at all in the last few months is Oklahoma State RHP Justin Campbell.

I wanted to also mention that SoxProspects.com posted their annual draft preview on Thursday, and they have a very solid track record of previewing players the Sox end up taking.

***

According to the experts, is this is a good, deep draft. Not a great one necessarily, but a lot of talent and players with one or two really outstanding areas of ability. Once you get past the first 15 picks or so, there isn’t a great deal of difference in terms of quality for the next 20-30 players who’ll come off the board.

I keep hearing a lot about the potential for “chaos” in the 1st round, and I’m not exactly sure what that means in the context of the players available. There will definitely be intrigue if the Orioles pass on Jones, even if it’s a virtual guarantee the D’Backs take Jones if he’s there at 2. The Rangers might go a little off the board and take Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada at 3, leaving the Pirates with a choice of whomever is left between Holliday, Collier, Lee or Johnson. That’s a pretty good place to be. Or, since they have a large bonus pool, they could get whacky and take someone way off the board. We have no idea! And that’s what’s so fun about this.

Beyond that, there’s always potential for teams taking haircuts and selecting guys out of the blue and off the board who end up signing for less. It seems like there may be more potential for that this year. That’s good for teams picking later who can look for value when guys slide.

While the overall talent in the draft is solid, it’s been a very weird year for pitchers, both in high school and college. The most talented HS pitcher in the country this year, Dylan Lesko from Georgia, had Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery this spring. The most talented college pitcher, Alabama’s Connor Prielipp, had TJ last year and has not pitched competitively this year. And there is a whole host of other 1st-round talents for pitchers who either had TJ this year, are coming off it, are coming off some other kind of injury, developed another injury that shut them down, or, in the case of East Carolina’s Carson Whisenhunt, were suspended for the entire season due to a drug violation.

For a while, there was a belief that for the first time in modern history, no pitchers would be taken with a top 10 pick in this year’s draft. I think a pitcher WILL be taken with a top 10 pick, and I’d look to the Royals at 9 as the most obvious candidate to do so. I think it’s also a virtual certainty the Angels will take a pitcher at 13, one year after they used all 20 of their draft selections on pitchers. The Mets have picks 11 (for failing to sign Rocker last year) and 14, so I suspect a pitcher may be on the docket for them as well for one of those choices.

Anyway, the draft starts at 7 p.m. ET Sunday night and I can’t wait to be proven wrong about everything I’ve written here. Enjoy!

(Photo credit: KnoxNews.com)

RED SOX: Making Sense of Trading Away Mookie Betts and David Price

Rambling, incoherent bullet-point thoughts on the Red Sox’s not-shocking-but-still-shocking decision to trade franchise cornerstone Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers:

• • The rumblings about a Betts trade picked up over the last few weeks, with Chaim Bloom creating a market for such a trade by playing NL West rivals the Dodgers and Padres off each other. The last few days made the trade seem like a fait accompli, with the Dodgers emerging as the frontrunner only real question being if Price’s salary was going to be included in the trade. I was afraid including Price would dilute the return for the Red Sox, and while we don’t know yet exactly how much salary they’re eating, it did reduce the overall number of players the Red Sox got back but didn’t necessarily lower the quality of talent. I’ll get to the two newest members of the Red Sox shortly.

 

• • I was across the street from Fenway when the deal went down, at a Rex Orange County show at the House of Blues. The show was excellent, but it was a bit hard to be torn away from my phone while it was happening. Sorry, Rex.

 

• • So, needless to say, this sucks. Mookie is one of the Red Sox best position players in the last 50 years. I loved watching him play. I remember first hearing his name early in his minors career, and following the Alex Speier-inspired hashtag #featsofmookie as this smallish kid started putting up completely absurd, out-of-nowhere numbers. It was a joy to follow him all these years, and he brought every kind of tool to the table as a player. He played RF better at Fenway than anyone in my lifetime. His 2018 season is probably my favorite for any Red Sox player in recent history, with his grand slam against JA Happ representing a turning point for the year one of the greatest regular season moments in franchise history. It really pisses me off he won’t be here this year.

 

• • As for Price, I genuinely hope he finds in LA whatever will make happy, because he was pretty miserable the entire time he was in Boston. He gladly took the Red Sox $217 million and opted into the rest of the deal after shedding the October bugaboo after a glorious 2018 postseason run, one where he should have been World Series MVP. But, Price was never comfortable here and his on-again, off-again feuds with Dennis Eckersley and some other media members were bewildering, pointless and mostly infuriating. I don’t think Price is a bad guy, he had his moments here and by all accounts he’s beloved as a teammate. But Boston was never a fit, and with three straight years of arm injuries this was the right time to get off his money, even if it means paying down half the $96 million he’s owed the next three years.

 

• • Perhaps the biggest thing I don’t like about the trade is the fact that the Red Sox decided to effectively punt the 2020 season in the name of being successful beyond that. Had Bloom and others decided to keep this team together there’s no reason they couldn’t compete with the Yankees and Rays for the division title, especially if the pitching returns to its 2018 level. When you have this much talent, it is really tough to punt on being competitive. But in the aftermath of Alex Cora’s firing, I do wonder if the Red Sox decided this would be a good time to move on and transition to the future. The Red Sox still don’t have a manager, by the way.

 

• • None of us know if the two players the Red Sox got back will pan out. But, they are the types of guys this current farm system has failed to pump out in recent years, and I have hopes they’ll produce for the big league club this year. Alex Verdugo is in the unenviable position of filling Mookie Betts’ shoes, but going into last year he was a consensus top-30 prospect in the game and acquitted himself very well as an everyday contributor on a 106-win team before getting hurt and missing the final two months. He has tools galore and a fabulous lefty stroke that should play well at Fenway. In Brusdar Graterol, the Sox have a top-60 prospect going into the year and the precise kind of pitcher that seemingly every team except Boston has been producing: a flamethrower with the ability to be either a long-term starter or closer. He has a 100 mph two-seamer and I have every expectation the Red Sox will find a way for him to contribute, fast. In total, the Red Sox used their position to acquire 11 years of big-league control for two guys who are locks to be MLB regulars right away. In a vacuum, that is an objectively great move for one year of an elite OF and three years of a distressed asset pitcher. But, this is not a vacuum.

 

• • So, why did this happen? For several years now, Mookie has given every indication he would test the free agency waters after the 2020 season. We don’t know the specific details of extension talks between the club and the player, but at least three times Mookie has declined such overtures. A local radio host recently said that last winter the Sox offered 10 years and $300 million and were countered with a 12-year, $420 million proposal that would put Mookie in league with Mike Trout and basically no one else. That report hasn’t been corroborated by any other reporting, but it’s in league with how far apart the sides were in previous discussions (we don’t know any details on how those discussions went this winter either). Mookie also knows how important he is to the players union and likely wants to get the biggest free agent contract ever handed out. You can only do so much as a team to get a player to sign. His agent may have told the Red Sox that no number from the Red Sox would be high enough, and that he wanted to go to the market regardless. If that’s the case, you cannot blame Bloom and the Red Sox for making this move. While their AL East rivals are pleased for what this trade will mean for their chances in 2020, I am positive Brian Cashman and Erik Neander and Ross Atkins are not pleased the Red Sox picked up those aforementioned 11 years of big league control for quality young talent they would not have otherwise gotten had they let Mookie walk and held onto Price.

 

• • The takes, they are hot. One of the most incorrect hot takes I’ve seen so far is this deal is a straight-up salary dump. Had the Red Sox not included Price’s deal in this transaction, I don’t know if people would feel that way. I think it’s basically a half-salary dump, with Price as the part getting dumped. CBT concerns were not why Mookie was traded. If the Red Sox goal in 2020 was to get under the $208 million CBT threshold, they could have done that anytime between now and the end of the regular season, and they did not need to trade Mookie to do it. They could have seen if Price was going to be healthy and traded him midseason, or moved on from expiring deals such as Jackie Bradley Jr. and others. They traded Mookie because they didn’t want to see him go elsewhere for nothing after 2020, with the moving of his and Price’s salaries a bonus to get under the CBT.  But the idea the Red Sox traded away Mookie Betts for the sole purpose of getting under the CBT is absurd and anyone who tells you different doesn’t know what they are talking about. I do worry that the longer this goes on before an official announcement takes place, the Red Sox risk losing control of the narrative for why this happened. They owe the fans an explanation for why their best player was just dealt with a year left on his deal, the kind of thing a team like the Royals or Pirates might do but seldom ever the Red Sox.

 

• • I also saw the take that the Red Sox should have just given Mookie a deal with a $37M AAV and that would have taken care of everything. Well, we don’t know if that was offered or not, or if Mookie would have taken it. But that $37M AAV number is exactly what Mike Trout is going to make until he turns 38. Just for the sake of comparison, over roughly the same number of games in their first six seasons (which is well before Trout signed his current deal), Mookie’s quadruple slash was .301/.374/.519/.893 with a 134 OPS+, while Trout was .306/.405/.557/.963 with a 170 OPS+. Also, why would the Red Sox give out that size of a contract to someone who hasn’t proven themselves at that level when they’d only be bidding against themselves? I don’t think that is how most smart teams operate. If you don’t believe me, look at the Dodgers’ contracts on Spotrac for 2021.

 

• Interestingly enough, the Red Sox will find themselves next offseason much better prepared to acquire someone like Mookie in the free agent market, and I would be surprised if the two sides have shut the door completely on that possibility. As long as the sides operated in good faith, and there were no hard feelings involved in the negotiations, I don’t see why a deal couldn’t be revisited. The timing, right before spring training, isn’t great for anyone involved, but I can’t imagine getting to live in LA and be on probably baseball’s best team is going to make Mookie terribly upset the same way Jon Lester wasn’t thrilled to go to Oakland in the middle of the 2014 season. The Red Sox tried, and failed, to bring Lester back. But other teams have been successful in similar circumstances, including the Phillies bringing back Cliff Lee and the Yankees doing the same for Aroldis Chapman.

All the best to Mookie and David in LA. What comes next for the Red Sox is a mystery. This is a sad day. That’s all I got.

RED SOX: A Team at a Crossroads

Earlier today the Red Sox season came to an end after a fun, tense but ultimately disappointing ALDS Game 4 at a rainy Fenway.

I have a lot of thoughts about how the 2017 season went down and what’s to come next, so here we go:

IT WAS FUN. REALLY.

This particular incarnation of the Red Sox was a study in interesting contrasts. There were a lot of young players making their first impression in MLB playing alongside numerous longtime veterans. They only equaled their win total from 2016 but managed to win (and generally play in) an absurd number of close games, including going an unimaginable 15-3 in extra inning games.

And, for the first time in recent memory, the Red Sox saw consistency in their pitching staff while failing to join the MLB-wide trend of increased power, finishing dead last in the AL in home runs (168).

But I never understood how people could call this first post-David Ortiz Red Sox team boring or “unlikable” as was the narrative after the David Price/Dennis Eckersley kerfuffle.

The young core of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, Jr. was joined this year by Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, plus Christian Vazquez finally came into his own as an everyday MLB catcher. That’s six guys 27 years old or younger who will be starters on this team going forward barring any trades.

Chris Sale was either the best or 2nd-best starter in the AL this year and Drew Pomeranz came out of nowhere to finish 10th in the AL in fWAR (3.1). Craig Kimbrel genuinely had one of the best years for any closer in baseball history, striking out just shy of 50 percent of all batters he faced.

And Price, who dealt with a significant elbow injury and a major PR disaster, was redeemed by returning healthy and pitching extremely well in relief late in the season and into the playoffs. Hopefully he can put what happened this past year behind him as 2018 presents a quasi-walk year for him.

But there was much to celebrate this season when it came to individual moments and performances.

I got to be in the park Aug. 1 for one of the craziest games I’ve ever seen, the one that included Austin Jackson’s unbelievable catch. I saw Vazquez hit a walkoff and I can recall few times ever hearing Fenway that loud.

Devers hitting that home run off Aroldis Chapman in Yankee Stadium to silence that crowd is something I won’t soon forget. Nor will I forget that catch by Bradley in the triangle to rob Aaron Judge.

Dustin Pedroia had a tough year injury-wise but he turned in the signature defensive play of his career with this play in Texas in July.

Benintendi showed us this year I believe a fraction of how good he can truly be. Sale wowed us every start and became the first appointment-viewing starter for the Red Sox since Pedro’s heyday. The bullpen, constantly tested by long and close games, came up big game after game this year.

I know this season didn’t end the way we wanted. But for those of us who watched night in and night out, it was memorable. And I’ll miss not watching this team every night. They were fun, and good. They just were.

WHAT WENT WRONG, AND WHAT’S NEXT

As I touched on above, the team’s biggest weakness was on offense and in particular a lack of power (they still finished 5th in team OBP and 6th in runs in the AL).

It’s easy to say this was because of losing David Ortiz, but it was more than that. Take a look at the OPS+ figures for these Red Sox hitters from 2016 and 2017:

Hanley Ramirez – 2016: 126 2017: 95 (-31)

Jackie Bradley, Jr. – 2016: 118 2017: 89 (-29)

Mookie Betts – 2016: 133 2017: 108 (-25)

Dustin Pedroia – 2016: 117 2017: 101 (-16)

Xander Bogaerts – 2016: 111 2017: 95 (-16)

You can blame some of this on these guys getting pitched tougher now without Ortiz in the lineup, but I don’t have empirical data to back that up. The bottom line is these five guys significantly underperformed in 2017 to their 2016 levels and that had a real impact on wins and losses and their ability to hang with the Astros in this ALDS.

Much has been made about the Red Sox refusal last winter to delve into the free agent hitting market beyond Mitch Moreland. Edwin Encarnacion signed for a pittance (3 years, $60 million) compared to his expected contract. I was OK with not going that route because I expected the remaining hitters could maintain or improve on their 2016 performances to make up for Ortiz’s absence.

The opposite happened and adding Eduardo Nunez at the deadline, while an effective move for about a month until he got injured, and turning over 3B to Devers didn’t do nearly enough to make up the gap.

So, with luxury tax penalties lessened for 2018 since the Red Sox managed to stay under it this year, I fully expect them to add at least one power hitter to this lineup, most likely at 1B. They are most likely stuck with the final guaranteed year on Ramirez’s contract at $22.75M (his 2019 option at $22M would vest based on plate appearances). Depending on who the Red Sox get, it could be a DH/1B timeshare between Ramirez and a new counterpart.

I don’t personally think the winter’s big free agent 1B, Eric Hosmer, really fits the bill of what the club would be looking for (he doesn’t really hit for enough power and would be very expensive). JD Martinez makes a ton of sense from a hitting perspective but it’s hard to see where he’d fit in besides as a full-time DH (with Ramirez then as a full-time 1B, which presents a lot of issues). Logan Morrison, who just hit 38 HRs for Tampa, would be a great fit but he’s only 30 and may be more expensive than the Red Sox would like.

They could explore a trade for someone like Joey Votto, the hitting savant who’d be loved here after years of being unappreciated in Cincinnati. His $25M annual salary isn’t an albatross, but he’s guaranteed for six more years and may not be as great of a player at the end. Plus, who knows if the Reds would even entertain trading him.

You’re likely to hear a lot about a potential Giancarlo Stanton trade this winter with the Red Sox likely prime members of that rumor mill. I don’t see it for a lot of reasons, namely that the Red Sox and every other team could’ve taken his massive contract for nothing in August and no one bit. As good as Stanton is and as amazing as his LF pull power would play at Fenway, he always gets hurt, his contract is way too long and by all accounts he’s kind of a jerk. Pass.

I doubt very much the Red Sox will add much on the pitching staff this offseason, barring trades of the current guys. The health of Price, Steven Wright, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg will play a role in what happens there. I do wonder if Dombrowski starts to think a little more about the long-term with Pomeranz, Kimbrel and (potentially) Price all in walk years in 2018.

OK, LET’S TALK ABOUT FARRELL

I’ve come to believe there is no more thankless job in the world of sports than being the manager of the Boston Red Sox. Even the most successful Red Sox manager of my lifetime, Terry Francona, was called “Francoma” by parts of the fanbase.

When it comes to John Farrell, I made my feelings known last year that I think the vitriol toward him is almost entirely unfounded. Do I think he’s a great manager? No. I think right now there are only two managers in all of MLB I’d call “great”: Francona and Joe Maddon.

But Farrell is at best good and at worst competent. The idea he should be fired for merely being good is one that only exists in Boston where every nanosecond of action for any of our teams is overanalyzed by radio blowhards and social media crazies among others.

These are the facts about Farrell: he won back-to-back AL East titles, taking 93 wins both years. He manages personalities in the clubhouse well by all accounts. He’s very good at his media responsibilities which is a big part of the job. The players like him, for the most part (there were some rumblings this year about his difficulty connecting with the younger players on the team). He’s accountable when things go wrong. He appears to have a good relationship with his direct boss, Dave Dombrowski, and the rest of the front office and ownership.

But, still, he’s not remotely safe in the eyes of many. It’s fair to wonder if Farrell has taken this group of players as far as he can go and if another manager could do better. It’s hard to say sitting here, not being there everyday, if that’s true.

Part of me wants the team to can Farrell just because I’m getting extremely sick of this storyline. He’d be fine. He’d get paid for the last year on his deal and would almost certainly get another managerial job as soon as he wants it. Red Sox fans are crazy if they think a team like the Mets or Tigers wouldn’t take him in a second.

If Farrell is let go, I don’t know who’s out there that would be better. For in-house candidates I’m sure the players would love to see Brian Butterfield get a shot. As much as he should be a big league manager, he’s also 59 and would likely just be a stopgap. If I’m the Red Sox, and the rift between Farrell and the younger players is actually an issue, I’d rather find a younger, analytically-driven manager who can connect and grow with those guys.

I’m not up on a lot of the possibilities that fit that description, but two former Red Sox World Champions come to mind. One is Alex Cora, current Astros bench coach, who is 41, has extensive experience running teams in Puerto Rico and as a player was someone I was certain would manage in the big leagues some day. The other is Gabe Kapler, 42, who was runner-up for the Dodgers managerial position heading into 2016. He’s managed in the minors and has a strong player development background.

I have no idea if either of those guys would be a better manager than Farrell. No one does. But if the team does decide to move on I hope it’s because they genuinely think they’d be better without him.

I think Red Sox fans should be prepared for news to break this week about a contract extension for Farrell. In the aggregate, it’s hard to say he doesn’t deserve it.

LAST THOUGHTS

As excited as I am for the future of this team, and as much as I’ll miss watching this group, I do have a twinge of uncertainty about them. It’s very clear both Houston and Cleveland are better than the Red Sox right now. Also the Yankees have a team on the rise and will have boatloads of money to play with over the next couple winters.

This Red Sox team is good. But will they be good enough to overtake those clubs the next few years? Dombrowski finds his team in a very similar situation to what Danny Ainge and the Celtics found themselves in this past summer. Sure, they had a good team that had just gone to the Eastern Conference Finals. But, were they great? Could they get over the hump to compete for a title?

Ainge decided to effectively blow up his entire roster in the name of putting together a great team. It remains to be seen if it will work, but he’s decided to take a risk.

The Red Sox have the aforementioned six young position players to build around. They have stars atop their rotation and an all-world closer. They have veterans in Pedroia and Ramirez who may be declining but aren’t necessarily albatrosses. All these things are good.

But what if Dombrowski decides that having a “good” team isn’t good enough? Then, once again, the Red Sox will steal winter headlines away from the teams actually playing.

I can’t wait to see what happens.